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Why did I build AmputatorBot?

Why did I build AmputatorBot?
AmputatorBot.com | Remove AMP from URLs in just one click! - More info
Open-sourced on GitHub - More info
Summon AmputatorBot by mentioning it like this: u/AmputatorBot

Why AMP is a threat to the Open Web

What is AMP?
AMP is an open-source web component framework developed by the AMP Open Source Project, first announced by Google in 2015 as a reaction to Facebook’s Instant Articles and Apple News. While it was originally aimed at accelerating mobile pages (hence AMP), it’s now a much broader project aimed at improving the UX of websites, stories, ads and mail. The AMP framework consists of three components: AMP HTML, which is standard HTML markup with web components; AMP JavaScript, which manages resource loading; and AMP caches, which serves and validates AMP pages.
In plain English: AMP is Google’s attempt at making pages (and more) faster. They did a good job, pages built with the AMP framework will normally load faster. However, as this article explains, you won’t notice much of a difference unless the AMP library is served using the AMP cache, but more on that later.
The controversies with cached AMP pages
The AMP format is itself not much of a problem. In fact, we should applaud search engines that give ranking preference to fast-loading pages like AMP, but four aspects of its implementation are flawed:
  1. Google mobile Search’s Top Stories carousel has a premium position above of all other results, which is only accessible for AMP pages. These pages have to use a technology that was build and maintained mostly by Google (of the top 10 contributors to the AMP project on GitHub, 9 are Google employees), are then served by Google from their infrastructure and placed within a Google controlled user experience. And since this carousel generates a lot of clicks and revenue, publishers are left no choice but to embrace AMP. This has the effect of further reinforcing Google’s dominance of the Web. Fortunately, Google has announced that it's working on opening up the Top Stories carousel to non-AMP pages in 2021.
  2. The biggest performance boost doesn’t come from the AMP framework, but from preloading the page. It begs the question: Should preloading really be exclusive to AMP? They could introduce a way for publishers to allow or disallow preloading and if Google sees fit, they could preload those pages too, alongside AMP.
  3. When a user navigates from Google to a piece of content Google has recommended (or when a user clicks on a shared cached AMP link), they are, unwittingly, remaining within Google’s ecosystem and the publisher’s domain is obscured by the google.com/amp prefix. To work around this Google introduced Signed HTTP Exchanges ([Draft], [1], [2]), a web-standard that allows the browser to display the original site's URL, instead of the actual one (the one with the google.com/prefix). This would solve the original issue, but while doing so it introduced new ones (e.g. it obfuscates the fact that they're delivering the AMP page you're visiting). Interestingly enough, Google's Chrome already has support for this technology, but parties not involved with AMP are not so enthusiastic: Mozilla has deemed it a harmful web standard [2], and Apple has taken a similar stance.
  4. Google’s entire business model is about collecting as much personal data as possible, AMP is just another tool to do so. As described in Google’s Support article:
“When you use the Google AMP Viewer, Google and the publisher that made the AMP page may each collect data about you.”
The controversies with non-cached AMP pages
To be clear, the above flaws are only with AMP pages cached by Google (or another party like Bing or Cloudflare) but there are also plenty of pages simply utilizing the AMP framework, recognized by URLs such as bbc.com/news/amp/. However, these are also problematic, mainly because there's only a small performance improvement when AMP pages aren't cached and AMP pages tend to be less feature-rich and less diverse than their originals. And in some edge cases, it breaks stuff.
One could argue that the more popular the AMP framework becomes, the more AMP threatens the open web. That said, it should be clear that the biggest problem lies with the cached AMP pages.
AMP is open source, but that doesn't make it holy. Or as Ferdy Christant puts it quite nicely in his blog:
Google’s main defense is that AMP is open source. Which isn’t just a weak defense, it’s no defense at all. I can open source a plan for genocide. The term “open source” is meaningless if the thing that is open source is harmful.
Just so we’re clear, I’m not claiming Google or the AMP project is evil (hell, they might even have good intentions!), but the fact is that AMP and it's implementation have some major flaws that threaten the Open Web. And as long as that's the case, AmputatorBot will be there to remove AMP from your URLs.
AmputatorBot scans for AMP pages on Reddit and replies with the canonical version
Learn more
Up next for the nerds among us:
  • AmputatorBot.com
  • Automatic working subreddits
  • Non-working subreddits
  • Changelog
  • Opt-out & opt-back-in
  • Browser extension
  • Support the project by donating, giving feedback, summoning the bot or spreading the word

AmputatorBot.com

Remove AMP in just one click with www.AmputatorBot.com! This is a free online tool (no ads) to remove AMP from your URLs. All you have to do is to copy paste an AMP URL, click the conversion-button and that's all! For more (background) info, check out this post. Here's a quick (no but literally) demo:
A demo of the AMP-removal process over at AmputatorBot.com
Alternatively, you can do it even quicker by doing this:
https://amputatorbot.com/?https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2018/06/19/tesla-model-3-assembly-line-inside-tent-elon-musk/amp/
It's build up like this:
https://amputatorbot.com + /? + https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2018/06/19/tesla-model-3-assembly-line-inside-tent-elon-musk/amp/

Automatic working subreddits

u/amputatorbot currently works automatically in a select number of subreddits: Afghanistan, Africa, against5G, againstRFID, amputatorbot, anime_titties, Argentina, Assyria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bosnia, Brasil, Bulgaria, Business, CenturyClubStairs, Chile, Chodi, chrome, Colombia, conspiracy, CorpFree, cyberpunk, Cuba, DeAmazon, DebunkThis, DeFacebook, deGoogle, deMicrosoft, economy, Ecuador, entertainment, Environment, europe, Europe, europrivacy, FakeNews, Features, Fijian, firefox, France, freesoftware, gamernews, Germany, Greece, Guyana, hacking, helpmefind, hockey, HumanRights, Hungary, ID_news, indiaspeaks, initFreedom, Iranian, Iraq, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kerala, Kurdistan, LeopardsAteMyFace, LevantineWar, MachineLearning, Malaysia, Mexico, MiddleEastNews, MideastPeace, Moldova, Nepal, NewsOfTheWeird, Nicaragua, NorthKoreaNews, Oceania, OnGuardForThee, Pakistan, Palestine, pcgaming, PeerTube, Philippines, Piracy, Poland, praisetheeditor, privacy, PuertoRico, robotics, Russia, Scotland, security, selfhosted, seo, Serbia, singapore, socialism, spacex, Spain, suckless, Switzerland, Syria, tech, technology, TechnologyDetox, test, TrueCrime, TrueCrimeDiscussion, TrueReddit, Turkey, Turkey, Ukraina, Ukraine, UkrainianConflict, UnresolvedMysteries, upliftingnews, Uruguay, USA, Venezuela, web_design, Westpapua, whatisthisthing, worldnews, Yemen and YemeniCrisis.
Feel free to hit me up with suggestions for subreddits to add!
You can summon the bot almost everywhere else by typing: u/AmputatorBot, more info here.

Non-working subreddits

AmputatorBot doesn't work in these subreddits android, androiddev, armenia, AskHistorians, askscience, AskScienceDiscussion, audio, australia, awfuleverything, bayarea, beer, belgium, bitcoin, books, canada, CanadaPolitics, cars, CCW, childfree, China, collapse, conservative, Cringetopia, croatia, CryptoCurrency, DataHoarder, disneyvacation, economics, ELI5, facepalm, flying, Futurology, gadgets, Games, gaming, gatesopencomeonin, geopolitics, Georgia, GlobalTalk, google, history, India, insaneparents, insanepeoplefacebook, instantkarma, iphone, iran, ireland, kitchener, korea, meme, moviedetails, movies, news, newzealand, nextfuckinglevel, nottheonion, oklahoma, pcmasterrace, Pete_Buttigieg, Philosophy, pihole, PoliticalDiscussion, politics, popheads, programming, raisedbynarcissists, rareinsults, Romania, science, SeattleWA, Sikh, SouthAfrica, space, survivor, television, Thailand, thenetherlands, TikTokCringe, TIL_Uncensored, todayilearned, trashy, tumblr, TwoXChromosomes, ukpolitics, unitedkingdom, unpopularopinion, USANews, warplaneporn, WatchPeopleDieInside, wellthatsucks, whatcouldgowrong, worldevents, worldpolitics, YouShouldKnow and almost all subreddits moderated by u/BotDefense or u/BotTerminator for diverse reasons. When you summon the bot there, you'll receive a DM with the canonical URL instead.p
If you're moderating a subreddit that is incorrectly listed here or if you would like AmputatorBot to work in your subreddit that's using u/BotDefense or u/BotTerminator please contact me.

Changelog

Check out the changelog here. Latest update: 22/08/2020

Opt out & opt back in

The bot works automatically in the subreddits mentioned above and manually using mentions.
Opt out: If you want to prevent the bot from replying to your comments and submissions, click here to opt out.
Opt back in: Did you opt-out and regret it? NP! Click here to opt back in.
Note: If you want to opt out from AmputatorBot on Twitter, please contact me or block it.

Browser-extension

Check out this browser-extension by Daniel Aleksandersen: 'Redirect AMP to HTML', it makes it that every time you click an AMP page, you will be redirected to the canonical page instead. In other words, it does the the same as u/AmputatorBot and AmputatorBot.com, but fully automatic. I can't recommend this one enough!

Support the project

.. By summoning the bot: If you've spotted an AMP URL on Reddit and u/AmputatorBot seems absent, you can summon the bot by mentioning u/AmputatorBot in a reply to the comment or submission containing the AMP URL. You'll receive a confirmation through PM. For more details, check out this post!
.. By giving feedback: Most of the new features were made after suggestions from you guys, so hit me up if you have any feedback! You can contact me on Reddit, fill an issue or make a pull request.
.. By sponsoring: The bot and website cost approximately €8.26 a month to host and while that might not seem like much, it adds up. All donations will be used ONLY to pay for hosting. You can specify any amount you want, but please keep in mind that I only want to try to cover some of the costs. Thank you so much! - https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=EU6ZFKTVT9VH2
.. By spreading the word: In the end, the only goal of AmputatorBot is to allow people to have an informed choice. You can help by spreading the word in whatever way you deem the most appropriate.

From the bottom of my heart, thank you so much for the tremendous support you've given me and AmputatorBot <3

https://preview.redd.it/fzhy8jedu6e51.png?width=3890&format=png&auto=webp&s=581561e0e267bb53ee3961a5e894633f8d6ff73f
submitted by Killed_Mufasa to AmputatorBot [link] [comments]

Stand in a circle WHILE donating 100k to wikipedia

Stand in a circle WHILE donating 100k to wikipedia submitted by ight_n3rds to dankmemes [link] [comments]

Mockingbird X.0

Imagine if there was one desk that all stories could cross so that, at 4am, a media plan could be decided upon and disseminated where all news outlets coordinated to set the goalposts of debate and hyper focused on specific issues to drive a narrative to control how you vote and how you spend money; where Internet shills were given marching orders in tandem to what was shown on television, printed in newspapers and spread throughout articles on the World Wide Web.
https://i.imgur.com/Elnci0M.png
In the past, we had Operation Mockingbird, where the program was supremely confident that it could control stories around the world, even in instructions to cover up any story about a possible “Yeti” sighting, should it turn out they were real.
https://i.imgur.com/121LXqy.png
If, in 1959, the government was confident in its ability to control a story about a Yeti, then what is their level of confidence in controlling stories, today?
https://i.imgur.com/jQFVYew.png
https://i.imgur.com/ZKMYGJj.png
In fact, we have a recent example of a situation similar to the Yeti. When Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch met on the TARMAC to spike the Hillary email investigation, the FBI was so confident it wasn’t them, that their entire focus was finding the leaker, starting with searching within the local PD. We have documentation that demonstrates the state of mind of the confidence the upper levels of the FBI have when dealing with the media.
https://i.imgur.com/IbjDOkI.png
https://i.imgur.com/NH86ozU.png
The marriage between mainstream media and government is a literal one and this arrangement is perfectly legal.
https://i.imgur.com/OAd4vpf.png
But, this problem extends far beyond politics; the private sector, the scientific community, even advice forums are shilled heavily. People are paid to cause anxiety, recommend people break up and otherwise sow depression and nervousness. This is due to a correlating force that employs “systems psychodynamics”, focusing on “tension centered” strategies to create “organizational paradoxes” by targeting people’s basic assumptions about the world around them to create division and provide distraction.
https://i.imgur.com/6OEWYFN.png
https://i.imgur.com/iG4sdD4.png
https://i.imgur.com/e89Rx6B.png
https://i.imgur.com/uotm9Cg.png
https://i.imgur.com/74wt9tD.png
In this day and age, it is even easier to manage these concepts and push a controlled narrative from a central figure than it has ever been. Allen & Co is a “boutique investment firm” that managed the merger between Disney and Fox and operates as an overseeing force for nearly all media and Internet shill armies, while having it’s fingers in sports, social media, video games, health insurance, etc.
https://i.imgur.com/zlpBh3c.png
https://i.imgur.com/e5ZvFFJ.png
Former director of the CIA and Paul Brennan’s former superior George Tenet, holds the reigns of Allen & Co. The cast of characters involves a lot of the usual suspects.
https://i.imgur.com/3OlrX7G.png
In 1973, Allen & Company bought a stake in Columbia Pictures. When the business was sold in 1982 to Coca-Cola, it netted a significant profit. Since then, Herbert Allen, Jr. has had a place on Coca-Cola's board of directors.
Since its founding in 1982, the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference has regularly drawn high-profile attendees such as Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Rupert Murdoch, Barry Diller, Michael Eisner, Oprah Winfrey, Robert Johnson, Andy Grove, Richard Parsons, and Donald Keough.
Allen & Co. was one of ten underwriters for the Google initial public offering in 2004. In 2007, Allen was sole advisor to Activision in its $18 billion merger with Vivendi Games. In 2011, the New York Mets hired Allen & Co. to sell a minority stake of the team. That deal later fell apart. In November 2013, Allen & Co. was one of seven underwriters on the initial public offering of Twitter. Allen & Co. was the adviser of Facebook in its $19 billion acquisition of WhatsApp in February 2014.
In 2015, Allen & Co. was the advisor to Time Warner in its $80 billion 2015 merger with Charter Communications, AOL in its acquisition by Verizon, Centene Corporation in its $6.8 billion acquisition of Health Net, and eBay in its separation from PayPal.
In 2016, Allen & Co was the lead advisor to Time Warner in its $108 billion acquisition by AT&T, LinkedIn for its merger talks with Microsoft, Walmart in its $3.3 billion purchase of Jet.com, and Verizon in its $4.8 billion acquisition of Yahoo!. In 2017, Allen & Co. was the advisor to Chewy.com in PetSmart’s $3.35 billion purchase of the online retailer.
Allen & Co throws the Sun Valley Conference every year where you get a glimpse of who sows up. Harvey Weinstein, though a past visitor, was not invited last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_%26_Company_Sun_Valley_Conference
Previous conference guests have included Bill and Melinda Gates, Warren and Susan Buffett, Tony Blair, Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Allen alumnus and former Philippine Senator Mar Roxas, Google Chairman Eric Schmidt, Quicken Loans Founder & Chairman Dan Gilbert, Yahoo! co-founder Jerry Yang, financier George Soros, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, Media Mogul Rupert Murdoch, eBay CEO Meg Whitman, BET founder Robert Johnson, Time Warner Chairman Richard Parsons, Nike founder and chairman Phil Knight, Dell founder and CEO Michael Dell, NBA player LeBron James, Professor and Entrepreneur Sebastian Thrun, Governor Chris Christie, entertainer Dan Chandler, Katharine Graham of The Washington Post, Diane Sawyer, InterActiveCorp Chairman Barry Diller, Linkedin co-founder Reid Hoffman, entrepreneur Wences Casares, EXOR and FCA Chairman John Elkann, Sandro Salsano from Salsano Group, and Washington Post CEO Donald E. Graham, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, and Oprah Winfrey.
https://i.imgur.com/VZ0OtFa.png
George Tenet, with the reigns of Allen & Co in his hands, is able to single-handedly steer the entire Mockingbird apparatus from cable television to video games to Internet shills from a singular location determining the spectrum of allowable debate. Not only are they able to target people’s conscious psychology, they can target people’s endocrine systems with food and pornography; where people are unaware, on a conscious level, of how their moods and behavior are being manipulated.
https://i.imgur.com/mA3MzTB.png
"The problem with George Tenet is that he doesn't seem to care to get his facts straight. He is not meticulous. He is willing to make up stories that suit his purposes and to suppress information that does not."
"Sadly but fittingly, 'At the Center of the Storm' is likely to remind us that sometimes what lies at the center of a storm is a deafening silence."
https://i.imgur.com/YHMJnnP.png
Tenet joined President-elect Bill Clinton's national security transition team in November 1992. Clinton appointed Tenet Senior Director for Intelligence Programs at the National Security Council, where he served from 1993 to 1995. Tenet was appointed Deputy Director of Central Intelligence in July 1995. Tenet held the position as the DCI from July 1997 to July 2004. Citing "personal reasons," Tenet submitted his resignation to President Bush on June 3, 2004. Tenet said his resignation "was a personal decision and had only one basis—in fact, the well-being of my wonderful family—nothing more and nothing less. In February 2008, he became a managing director at investment bank Allen & Company.
https://i.imgur.com/JnGHqOS.png
We have the documentation that demonstrates what these people could possibly be doing with all of these tools of manipulation at their fingertips.
The term for it is “covert political action” for which all media put before your eyes is used to serve as a veneer… a reality TV show facade of a darker modus operandum.
https://i.imgur.com/vZC4D29.png
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-csi/vol36no3/html/v36i3a05p_0001.htm
It is now clear that we are facing an implacable enemy whose avowed objective is world domination by whatever means and at whatever costs. There are no rules in such a game. Hitherto acceptable norms of human conduct do not apply. If the US is to survive, longstanding American concepts of "fair play" must be reconsidered. We must develop effective espionage and counterespionage services and must learn to subvert, sabotage and destroy our enemies by more clever, more sophisticated means than those used against us. It may become necessary that the American people be made acquainted with, understand and support this fundamentally repugnant philosophy.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/3340677/t/cia-operatives-shadowy-war-force/
Intelligence historian Jeffrey T. Richelson says the S.A. has covered a variety of missions. The group, which recently was reorganized, has had about 200 officers, divided among several groups: the Special Operations Group; the Foreign Training Group, which trains foreign police and intelligence officers; the Propaganda and Political Action Group, which handles disinformation; the Computer Operations Group, which handles information warfare; and the Proprietary Management Staff, which manages whatever companies the CIA sets up as covers for the S.A.
Scientology as a CIA Political Action Group – “It is a continuing arrangement…”: https://mikemcclaughry.wordpress.com/2015/08/25/scientology-as-a-cia-political-action-group-it-is-a-continuing-arrangement/
…Those operations we inaugurated in the years 1955-7 are still secret, but, for present purposes, I can say all that’s worth saying about them in a few sentences – after, that is, I offer these few words of wisdom. The ‘perfect’ political action operation is, by definition, uneventful. Nothing ‘happens’ in it. It is a continuing arrangement, neither a process nor a series of actions proceeding at a starting point and ending with a conclusion.
CIA FBI NSA Personnel Active in Scientology: https://i.imgur.com/acu2Eti.png
When you consider the number of forces that can be contained within a single “political action group” in the form on a “boutique investment firm,” where all sides of political arguments are predetermined by a selected group of actors who have been planted, compromised or leveraged in some way in order to control the way they spin their message.
https://i.imgur.com/tU4MD4S.png
The evidence of this coordinated effort is overwhelming and the “consensus” that you see on TV, in sports, in Hollywood, in the news and on the Internet is fabricated.
Under the guise of a fake account a posting is made which looks legitimate and is towards the truth is made - but the critical point is that it has a VERY WEAK PREMISE without substantive proof to back the posting. Once this is done then under alternative fake accounts a very strong position in your favour is slowly introduced over the life of the posting. It is IMPERATIVE that both sides are initially presented, so the uninformed reader cannot determine which side is the truth. As postings and replies are made the stronger 'evidence' or disinformation in your favour is slowly 'seeded in.'
Thus the uninformed reader will most likely develop the same position as you, and if their position is against you their opposition to your posting will be most likely dropped. However in some cases where the forum members are highly educated and can counter your disinformation with real facts and linked postings, you can then 'abort' the consensus cracking by initiating a 'forum slide.'
When you find yourself feeling like common sense and common courtesy aren’t as common as they ought to be, it is because there is a massive psychological operation controlled from the top down to ensure that as many people as possible are caught in a “tension based” mental loop that is inflicted on them by people acting with purpose to achieve goals that are not in the interest of the general population, but a method of operating in secret and corrupt manner without consequences.
Notice that Jeffrey Katzenberg, of Disney, who is intertwined with Allen & Co funds the Young Turks. He is the perfect example of the relationship between media and politics.
Katzenberg has also been involved in politics. With his active support of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, he was called "one of Hollywood's premier political kingmakers and one of the Democratic Party's top national fundraisers."
With cash from Jeffrey Katzenberg, The Young Turks looks to grow paid subscribers:
https://digiday.com/media/with-cash-from-katzenberg-the-young-turks-look-to-grow-paid-subscribers/
Last week, former DreamWorks Animation CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg’s new mobile entertainment company WndrCo was part of a $20 million funding round in TYT Network, which oversees 30 news and commentary shows covering politics, pop culture, sports and more. This includes the flagship “The Young Turks” program that streams live on YouTube every day. Other investors in the round included venture capital firms Greycroft Partners, E.ventures and 3L Capital, which led the round. This brings total funding for Young Turks to $24 million.
How Hollywood's Political Donors Are Changing Strategies for the Trump Era:
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/hollywood-political-donors-are-changing-strategy-post-trump-1150545
Hollywood activism long has been depicted as a club controlled by a handful of powerful white men: Katzenberg, Spielberg, Lear, David Geffen, Haim Saban and Bob Iger are the names most often mentioned. But a new generation of power brokers is ascendant, including J.J. Abrams and his wife, Katie McGrath, cited for their personal donations and bundling skills; Shonda Rhimes, who held a get-out-the-vote rally at USC's Galen Center on Sept. 28 that drew 10,000 people; CAA's Darnell Strom, who has hosted events for Nevada congresswoman Jacky Rosen and Arizona congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema; and former Spotify executive Troy Carter, who held three fundraisers for Maryland gubernatorial candidate Ben Jealous (Carter also was a fundraiser for President Obama).
Soros Group Buys Viacom's DreamWorks Film Library:
https://www.forbes.com/2006/03/17/soros-viacom-dreamworks-cx_gl_0317autofacescan11.html#541a895f1f22
Viacom, after splitting off from Les Moonves Les Moonves ' CBS , still holds Paramount Pictures, and that movie studio in December agreed to acquire DreamWorks SKG, the creative shop founded by the Hollywood triumvirate of Steven Spielberg, David Geffen and Jeffrey Katzenberg (a former exec at The Walt Disney Co.). DreamWorks Animation had been spun off into a separate company.
Now it's time for Freston to make back some money--and who better to do a little business with than George Soros? The billionaire financier leads a consortium of Soros Strategic Partners LP and Dune Entertainment II LLC, which together are buying the DreamWorks library--a collection of 59 flicks, including Saving Private Ryan, Gladiator, and American Beauty.
The money you spend on media and junk food and in taxes goes to these groups who then decide how best to market at you so that they decide how you vote by creating a fake consensus to trick into thinking that you want something other than what is best for you; but will inevitably result in more money being funneled to the top, creating further separation between the super rich and the average person. The goal will be to assert creeping authoritarianism by generating outrage against policies and issues they hate. Part of manipulating your basic assumptions is also to use schadenfreude (think canned laughter on TV) against characters who support the cause that might actually do you the most good (which reaffirms and strengthens your confirmation biased along predetermined political lines).
https://i.imgur.com/PW1cRtj.png
We have a population being taught to hate socialism and love capitalism when the truth is no country is practicing either. These terms are merely disguises for political oligarchies where the collection of wealth is less about getting themselves rich and more about keeping everyone else poor.
What can you guess about the world around you if it turned out that every consensus that was forced on you was fake?
How much money would it take to make it look like 51% of the Internet believed in completely idiotic ideas? Combine shill operations with automation and AI’s, and the cost becomes a good investment relative to the return when measured in political power.
Even the people who are well intentioned and very vocal do not have to consciously be aware that they are working for a political action group. A covert political group will always prefer an unwitting tool to help push their agenda, so that they can remain in the shadows.
FDA Admonishes Drug Maker Over Kim Kardashian Instagram Endorsement https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkroll/2015/08/11/fda-spanks-drug-maker-over-kim-kardashian-instagram-endorsement/#25174a29587b
The OSS files offer details about other agents than famous chef, Julia Child; including Supreme Court Justice Arthur Goldberg, major league catcher Moe Berg, historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr., and actor Sterling Hayden. http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26186498/ns/us_news-security/t/julia-child-cooked-double-life-spy/
USA Today: Businesses and organizations may refer to it as a tool for competitive advantage and marketing; but make no mistake http://archive.is/37tK3
Shareblue accounts caught in /politics posting links to Shareblue without disclosing their affiliation http://archive.is/7HAkr
Psy Group developed elaborate information operations for commercial clients and political candidates around the world http://archive.is/BBblQ
Top mod of /Mechanical_Gifs tries to sell subreddit on ebay for 999.00 dollars. http://archive.is/kU1Ly
Shill posts picture of a dog in a hammock with the brand clearly visible without indicating that it's an ad in the title of the post http://archive.is/Mfdk9
Arstechnica: GCHQs menu of tools spreads disinformation across Internet- “Effects capabilities” allow analysts to twist truth subtly or spam relentlessly. http://arstechnica.com/security/2014/07/ghcqs-chinese-menu-of-tools-spread-disinformation-across-internet/
Samsung Electronics Fined for Fake Online Comments http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/24/samsung-electronics-fined-for-fake-online-comments/?_r=0
Discover Magazine: Researchers Uncover Twitter Bot Army That’s 350 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2017/01/20/twitter-bot-army/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20DiscoverTechnology%20%28Discover%20Technology%29#.WIMl-oiLTnA
Times of Israel - The internet: Israel’s new PR battlefield http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-rise-of-digital-diplomacy-could-be-changing-israels-media-image/
Time: Social Media Manipulation? When “Indie” Bloggers and Businesses Get Cozy http://business.time.com/2013/04/22/social-media-manipulation-when-indie-bloggers-and-businesses-get-cozy/
Content-Driven Detection of Campaigns in Social Media [PDF] http://faculty.cs.tamu.edu/caverlee/pubs/lee11cikm.pdf
the law preventing them from using this in America was repealed http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/07/14/u-s-repeals-propaganda-ban-spreads-government-made-news-to-americans/
Redditor who works for a potato mailing company admits to being a shill. He shows off his 27 thousand dollars he made in /pics
http://i.imgur.com/CcTHwdS.png
Screenshot of post since it was removed. http://i.imgur.com/k9g0WF8.png
Just thought I'd contribute to this thread http://imgur.com/OpSos4u
CNN: A PR firm has revealed that it is behind two blogs that previously appeared to be created by independent supporters of Wal-Mart. The blogs Working Families for Wal-mart and subsidiary site Paid Critics are written by 3 employees of PR firm Edelman http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/20/news/companies/walmart_blogs/index.htm
Vice: Your Government Wants to Militarize Social Media to Influence Your Beliefs http://motherboard.vice.com/read/your-government-wants-to-militarize-social-media-to-influence-your-beliefs
BBC News: China's Internet spin doctors http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7783640.stm
BBC News: US plans to 'fight the net' revealed http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4655196.stm
Wall Street Journal: Turkey's Government Forms 6 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323527004579079151479634742?mg=reno64-wsj&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424127887323527004579079151479634742.html
Fake product reviews may be pervasive http://phys.org/news/2013-07-fake-product-pervasive.html#nRlv
USA Today: The co-owner of a major Pentagon propaganda contractor publicly admitted that he was behind a series of websites used in an attempt to discredit two USA TODAY journalists who had reported on the contractor. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/military/story/2012-05-24/Leonie-usa-today-propaganda-pentagon/55190450/1
ADWEEK: Marketing on Reddit Is Scary http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/marketing-reddit-scary-these-success-stories-show-big-potential-168278
BBC- How online chatbots are already tricking you- Intelligent machines that can pass for humans have long been dreamed of http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140609-how-online-bots-are-tricking-you
BBC news: Amazon targets 1 http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34565631
BBC: More than four times as many tweets were made by automated accounts in favour of Donald Trump around the first US presidential debate as by those backing Hillary Clinton http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37684418
Fake five-star reviews being bought and sold online - Fake online reviews are being openly traded on the internet
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-43907695
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-20982985
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-20982985
Bloomberg: How to Hack an Election [and influence voters with fake social media accounts] http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-how-to-hack-an-election/
"Internet Reputation Management http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2008-04-30/do-reputation-management-services-work-businessweek-business-news-stock-market-and-financial-advice
Buzzfeed: Documents Show How Russia’s Troll Army Hit America http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/documents-show-how-russias-troll-army-hit-america#.ki8Mz97ly
The Rise of Social Bots http://www.cacm.acm.org/magazines/2016/7/204021-the-rise-of-social-bots/fulltext
CBC News- Canadian government monitors online forums http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bureaucrats-monitor-online-forums-1.906351
Chicago Tribune: Nutrition for sale: How Kellogg worked with 'independent experts' to tout cereal http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-kellogg-independent-experts-cereal-20161121-story.html
DailyKos: HBGary: Automated social media management http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/02/16/945768/-UPDATED-The-HB-Gary-Email-That-Should-Concern-Us-All
Meme Warfare Center http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tfulltext/u2/a507172.pdf
Shilling on Reddit is openly admitted to in this Forbes article http://www.forbes.com/sites/julesschroede2016/03/10/the-magic-formula-behind-going-viral-on-reddit/#1d2485b05271
Forbes: From Tinder Bots To 'Cuban Twitter' http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/04/17/from-tinder-bots-to-covert-social-networks-welcome-to-cognitive-hacking/#4b78e2d92a7d
Hivemind http://www.hivemind.cc/rank/shills
Huffington Post- Exposing Cyber Shills and Social Media's Underworld http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sam-fiorella/cyber-shills_b_2803801.html
The Independent: Massive British PR firm caught on video: "We've got all sorts of dark arts...The ambition is to drown that negative content and make sure that you have positive content online." They discuss techniques for managing reputations online and creating/maintaining 3rd-party blogs that seem independent. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/caught-on-camera-top-lobbyists-boasting-how-they-influence-the-pm-6272760.html
New York Times: Lifestyle Lift http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/15/technology/internet/15lift.html?_r=1&emc=eta1
New York Times: Give Yourself 5 Stars? Online http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/23/technology/give-yourself-4-stars-online-it-might-cost-you.html?src=me&ref=general
NY Times- From a nondescript office building in St. Petersburg http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/magazine/the-agency.html?_r=1
NY Times: Effort to Expose Russia’s ‘Troll Army’ Draws Vicious Retaliation http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/31/world/europe/russia-finland-nato-trolls.html?_r=1
PBS Frontline Documentary - Generation Like http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/generation-like/
Gamers promote gaming-gambling site on youtube by pretending to hit jackpot without disclosing that they own the site. They tried to retroactively write a disclosure covering their tracks http://www.pcgamer.com/csgo-lotto-investigation-uncovers-colossal-conflict-of-interest/
Raw Story: CENTCOM engages bloggers http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Raw_obtains_CENTCOM_email_to_bloggers_1016.html
Raw Story: Air Force ordered software to manage army of fake virtual people http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/02/18/revealed-air-force-ordered-software-to-manage-army-of-fake-virtual-people/
Redective http://www.redective.com/?r=e&a=search&s=subreddit&t=redective&q=shills
Salon: Why Reddit moderators are censoring Glenn Greenwald’s latest news story on shills http://www.salon.com/2014/02/28/why_reddit_moderators_are_censoring_glenn_greenwalds_latest_bombshell_partne
The Atlantic: Kim Kardashian was paid to post a selfie on Instagram and Twitter advertising a pharmaceutical product. Sent to 42 million followers on Instagram and 32 million on Twitter http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2015/09/fda-drug-promotion-social-media/404563/
WAR.COM: THE INTERNET AND PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS http://www.theblackvault.com/documents/ADA389269.pdf
The Guardian: Internet Astroturfing http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/libertycentral/2010/dec/13/astroturf-libertarians-internet-democracy
The Guardian: Israel ups the stakes in the propaganda war http://www.theguardian.com/media/2006/nov/20/mondaymediasection.israel
Operation Earnest Voice http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2011/ma17/us-spy-operation-social-networks
The Guardian: British army creates team of Facebook warriors http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/31/british-army-facebook-warriors-77th-brigade
The Guardian: US military studied how to influence Twitter [and Reddit] users in Darpa-funded research [2014] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/08/darpa-social-networks-research-twitter-influence-studies
The Guardian: Chinese officials flood the Chinese internet with positive social media posts to distract their population http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/20/chinese-officials-create-488m-social-media-posts-a-year-study-finds
Times of Israel: Israeli government paying bilingual students to spread propaganda online primarily to international communities without having to identify themselves as working for the government. "The [student] union will operate computer rooms for the project...it was decided to establish a permanent structure of activity on the Internet through the students at academic institutions in the country." http://www.timesofisrael.com/pmo-stealthily-recruiting-students-for-online-advocacy/
USA Today: Lord & Taylor settles FTC charges over paid Instagram posts http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/03/15/lord--taylor-settles-ftc-charges-over-paid-instagram-posts/81801972/
Researcher's algorithm weeds out people using multiple online accounts to spread propaganda - Based on word choice http://www.utsa.edu/today/2016/10/astroturfing.html
http://www.webinknow.com/2008/12/the-us-air-force-armed-with-social-media.html
Wired: Powered by rapid advances in artificial intelligence http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/06/wired-world-2015/robot-propaganda
Wired: Clinton Staff and Volunteers Busted for Astroturfing [in 2007] http://www.wired.com/2007/12/clinton-staff-a/
Wired: Pro-Government Twitter Bots Try to Hush Mexican Activists http://www.wired.com/2015/08/pro-government-twitter-bots-try-hush-mexican-activists/
Wired: Microsoft http://www.wired.com/2015/09/ftc-machinima-microsoft-youtube/
Wired: Military Report: Secretly ‘Recruit or Hire Bloggers’ http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/03/report-recruit/
Wired: Air Force Releases ‘Counter-Blog’ Marching Orders http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/01/usaf-blog-respo/
Reddit Secrets https://archive.fo/NAwBx
Reddit Secrets https://archive.fo/SCWN7
Boostupvotes.com https://archive.fo/WdbYQ
"Once we isolate key people https://archive.is/PoUMo
GCHQ has their own internet shilling program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Threat_Research_Intelligence_Group
Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-sponsored_Internet_sockpuppetry
US also operates in conjunction with the UK to collect and share intelligence data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UKUSA_Agreement
Glenn Greenwald: How Covert Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/02/24/jtrig-manipulation/
Glenn Greenwald: Hacking Online Polls and Other Ways British Spies Seek to Control the Internet https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/07/14/manipulating-online-polls-ways-british-spies-seek-control-internet/
Here is a direct link to your image for the benefit of mobile users https://imgur.com/OpSos4u.jpg
Reddit for iPhone https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/reddit-the-official-app/id1064216828?mt=8
Why Satoshi Nakamoto Has Gone https://medium.com/@ducktatosatoshi-nakamoto-has-gone-4cef923d7acd
What I learned selling my Reddit accounts https://medium.com/@Rob79/what-i-learned-selling-my-reddit-accounts-c5e9f6348005#.u5zt0mti3
Artificial intelligence chatbots will overwhelm human speech online; the rise of MADCOMs https://medium.com/artificial-intelligence-policy-laws-and-ethics/artificial-intelligence-chatbots-will-overwhelm-human-speech-online-the-rise-of-madcoms-e007818f31a1
How Reddit Got Huge: Tons of Fake Accounts - According to Reddit cofounder Steve Huffman https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/how-reddit-got-huge-tons-of-fake-accounts--2
Whistleblower and subsequent investigation: Paid trolls on /Bitcoin https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/34m7yn/professional_bitcoin_trolls_exist/cqwjdlw
Confession of Hillary Shill from /SandersForPresident https://np.reddit.com/conspiracy/comments/3rncq9/confession_of_hillary_shill_from/
Why do I exist? https://np.reddit.com/DirectImageLinkerBot/wiki/index
Already a direct link? https://np.reddit.com/DirectImageLinkerBot/wiki/res_links
Here's the thread. https://np.reddit.com/HailCorporate/comments/3gl8zi/that_potato_mailing_company_is_at_it_again/
/netsec talks about gaming reddit via sockpuppets and how online discourse is (easily) manipulated. https://np.reddit.com/netsec/comments/38wl43/we_used_sock_puppets_in_rnetsec_last_year_and_are
Redditor comes clean about being paid to chat on Reddit. They work to promote a politician https://np.reddit.com/offmychest/comments/3gk56y/i_get_paid_to_chat_on_reddit/
Shill whistleblower https://np.reddit.com/politics/comments/rtr6b/a_very_interesting_insight_into_how_certain/
Russian bots were active on Reddit last year https://np.reddit.com/RussiaLago/comments/76cq4d/exclusive_we_can_now_definitively_state_that/?st=j8s7535j&sh=36805d5d
The Bush and Gore campaigns of 2000 used methods similar to the Chinese government for conducting “guided discussions” in chatrooms designed to influence citizens https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/3xhoq8/til_the_advent_of_social_media_offers_new_routes/?st=j0o5xr9c&sh=3662f0dc
source paper. https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/4d3l3s/government_agents_and_their_allies_might_ente
or Click Here. https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/4kdq7n/astroturfing_information_megathread_revision_8/?st=iwlbcoon&sh=9e44591e Alleged paid shill leaks details of organization and actions.
https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/4wl19alleged_paid_shill_leaks_details_of_organization/?st=irktcssh&sh=8713f4be
Shill Confessions and Additional Information https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/5pzcnx/shill_confessions_and_additional_information/?st=izz0ga8r&sh=43621acd
Corporate and governmental manipulation of Wikipedia articles https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/5sb7pi/new_york_times_corporate_editing_of_wikipedia/?st=iyteny9b&sh=b488263f
Ex -MMA fighter and ex-police officer exposes corrupt police practices https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/6jn27s/ex_mma_fighter_and_expolice_officer_exposes/
User pushes InfoWars links on Reddit https://np.reddit.com/shills/comments/6uau99/chemicals_in_reddit_are_turning_memes_gay_take/?st=j6r0g2om&sh=96f3dbf4
Some websites use shill accounts to spam their competitor's articles https://np.reddit.com/TheoryOfReddit/comments/1ja4nf/lets_talk_about_those_playing_reddit_with/?st=iunay35w&sh=d841095d
User posts video using GoPro https://np.reddit.com/videos/comments/2ejpbb/yes_it_is_true_i_boiled_my_gopro_to_get_you_this/ck0btnb/?context=3&st=j0qt0xnf&sh=ef13ba81
Fracking shill whistleblower spills the beans on Fracking Internet PR https://np.reddit.com/worldnews/comments/31wo57/the_chevron_tapes_video_shows_oil_giant_allegedly/cq5uhse?context=3
https://i.imgur.com/Q3gjFg9.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/q2uFIV0.jpg
TOP SECRET SPECIAL HANDLING NOFORN
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Operations
October 16, 1964
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR OF THE CIA
Subject: After action report of
Operation CUCKOO (TS)
INTRODUCTION

1) Operation CUCKOO was part of the overall operation CLEANSWEEP, aimed at eliminating domestic opposition to activities undertaken by the Central Intelligence Agency's special activities division, in main regard to operation GUILLOTINE.

2) Operation CUCKOO was approved by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Department of Defense and the office of The President of the United States as a covert domestic action to be under taken within the limits of Washington D.C as outlined by Secret Executive Order 37.

3) Following the publishing of the Warren Commission, former special agent Mary Pinchot Meyer (Operation MOCKINGBIRD, Operation SIREN) also was married to Cord Meyer (Operation MOCKINGBIRD, Operation GUILLOTINE) threatened to disclose the details of several Special Activities Divisions' operations, including but not limited to, Operation SIREN and GUILLOTENE.
​1
TOP SECRET SPECIAL HANDLING NOFORN
4) It was deemed necessary by senior Directorate of Operations members to initiate Operation CUCKOO as an extension of Operation CLEANSWEEP on November 30th. After Mary Pinchot Meyer threatened to report her knowledge of Operation GUILLOTENE and the details of her work in Operation SIREN from her affair with the former President.

5) Special Activities Division was given the green light after briefing president Johnson on the situation. The situation report was forwarded to the Department of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of staff, who both approved of the parameters of the operation, as outlined under article C of secret executive order 37 (see attached copy of article).
​PLANNING STAGES
6) 8 members of the special activities division handpicked by operation lead William King Harvey began planning for the operation on October 3rd, with planned execution before October 16th.

7) The (?) of the operation was set as the neighborhood of Georgetown along the Potomac river, where the operators would observe, take note on routines, and eventually carry the operation.

8) After nothing Meyer's routines, Edward "Eddy" Reid was picked as the operation point man who would intersect Meyer on her walk on October 12th, with lead William King Harvey providing long range support if necessary from across the Chesapeake and Ohio canal (see illustration A for detailed map).

9) Edward Reid was planned to be dressed in the manner of a homeless black man, due to his resemblances to local trash collector (later found out to be Raymond Crump) who inhabits the AO and the path that Reid was planned to intersect Meyer.
2
TOP SECRET SPECIAL HANDLING NOFORN
submitted by The_Web_Of_Slime to Intelligence [link] [comments]

Tracking and Rating Arizona State Legislative Campaign Filings for the 2020 Cycle (June 2019 Edition)

It's been a while since my last post highlighting the 2020 AZ legislative campaign, so I've decided to write an update on how things are looking in the Grand Canyon State. Unlike last post, there are 3 main lists: Incumbents (this includes State House running for State Senate), People I Have No Clue About, and Notable Challengers. When a specific filing has a discernable impact - i.e. "this is good for Democrats" - I'll say so.
There's also an update to a January ranking that merits writing because I forgot which seat an incumbent held - instead of running for re-election in the House Kirsten Engel is running for Senate in D10, which could lead to her primarying our Senate Minority Leader.
Don't worry that this batch of candidates is, on the whole, more bad for Dems than good. Some are incumbents, and them running for these seats was a foregone conclusion.
Updates
Incumbents
  • Kate Brophy McGee, SD-28 (R) - the Susan Collins of Arizona has filed to run for yet another fucking term in 2020. She held on last time by only 267 votes against 2016 Teacher of the Year Christine Porter Marsh. This seat would be a lot more winnable if it was open (I think Clinton won it by 3, Sinema by...9?) but if McGee is running for this she isn't primarying Stanton. This is bad for legislative Democrats, good for congressional Democrats.
  • Leo Biassuci, HD-5 (R) - nondescript GOP backbencher (and former Green Party candidate!). Very red district.
  • Richard Andrade, HD-29 (D) - progressive Dem. in a blue seat. Old backbencher, nice guy, glad he's running again.
  • Walt Blackman, HD-6 (R) - the AZ GOP's token black friend, a freshman incumbent in a very close House seat up north (where Dems lost by 577 votes last year). Blackman's a charismatic veteran and a minority and is probably the best candidate they can field in this seat - a mini John James. Him running for re-election, while expected, is bad for Democrats.
  • Isela Blanc, SD-26 (D) - not an incumbent in SD-26, but a House incumbent in the analogous district. She's primarying Sen. Juan Mendez for unknown reasons, having split from him and fellow district Democratic Rep. Athena Salman back before last year's election. Blanc and Mendez are both progressive as fuck, so I don't see the point of this primary.
  • Shawnna Bolick, HD-20 (R) - Bolick is the wife of AZ supreme Court Justice Clint Bolick. After carpetbagging across the Valley of the Sun, Shawnna won a seat on her 3rd try - but not by much. Given how tight HD-20 is her re-election campaign is at worst neutral for Dems, and may be slightly good for Democrats.
  • Sean Bowie, SD-18 (D) - Bowie is a Blue Dog-ish Senator in a suburban district, having flipped the seat in 2016 and increasing his margin in 2018. On a personal level he's kind of a dick (you didn't hear it from me), but as a candidate he can run a damn good race and has a surprisingly loyal base among Dems in the district. Him running again is good for Democrats.
  • Paul Boyer, SD-20 (R) - Paul Boyer is a freshman Senator in District 20 who for some reason is running for re-election (instead of opting for something less stressful, like the Phoenix City Council) despite being threatened with blacklisting by his GOP colleagues for having the gall to hold his budget vote hostage until a law defending sexual assault victims was passed. He's a kinda-moderate guy, teacher - decent fit for a suburban district that Dems won statewide last year. Him running for re-election is bad for Democrats.
  • Noel Campbell, HD-1 (R) - nondescript backbencher in deep-red seat.
  • David Cook, HD-8 (R) - veteran GOP lawmaker in a rural House seat swinging away from Democrats - guess it's comparable to Montana on a national level. Cook won by exactly 7,250 votes last November, which is probably why he felt comfortable blowing almost twice the legal limit during a DUI stop and threatening the cop that arrested him. Controversy blew over but it might bubble up again in 2020. This might be slightly good for Democrats.
  • Andrea Dalessandro, SD-2 (D) - nice Dem. backbencher in a safe D district.
  • Mitzi Epstein, HD-18 (D) - nice Dem. backbencher in the same district as Bowie. Speaks softly but runs a big campaign when you need her to. This is good for Democrats.
  • Karen Fann, SD-1 (R) - GOP Senate President who lives in a stupidly-red seat. Not much to analyze.
  • David Farnsworth, CorpComm (R) - Average GOP Senator in a deep red seat, trying to run statewide this time around for the utility board. I don't really know his utility positions and he's not much of a bombthrower so I can't give an impact of this filing at this point in time. I guess it makes the primary for the GOP slightly more contentious which might be slightly good for Democrats.
  • Charlene Fernandez, HD-4 (D) - if you read the Engel blurb above, Fernandez is the House Minority Leader that pulls double duty by covering for the incompetence of the Dem. Senate Minority Leader. Charlene's a goddamn tank and may run for Congress once Grijalva retires, or for the governorship in 2022. But she seems damn set to be Speaker of the House for a couple of years before that. The Democrats in AZ need her - so her running again is good for Democrats.
  • John Fillmore, HD-16 (R): GOP backbencher in a deep-red district.
  • Randall Friese, HD-9 (D): Randy Friese is the current Democratic Assistant House Minority Leader, the surgeon who saved Gabby Giffords's life, and amateur Jeremy Corbyn lookalike. He's a great legislator and campaigner and helped fundraise for competitive seats across the state. He was a presumptive candidate for the US Senate, but with Kelly running I'm glad he's sticking in the legislature. This is good for Democrats.
  • Rosanna Gabaldon, HD-2 (D) - nice Dem. backbencher in a safe D district.
  • Travis Grantham, HD-12 (R) - typical GOP douche dude in a dark-red seat.
  • Jennifer Jermaine, HD-18 (D) - the third Democrat in District 18 (along with Bowie and Epstein), Jermaine is a former Moms Demand Action and public school funding campaigner who ran a damn good race last year to win her seat. The fact that she's running again is good for Democrats.
  • Anthony Kern, HD-20 (R) - oh Anthony Kern. What an utter fucking scumbag. Despite representing a damn-purple suburban seat, Kern's gone full Trump - comparing the needy to parasitic birds, made abusive comments to female subordinates, got and ethics complaint filed against him for violating the state Constitution, got put on the "super-untrustworthy cop list" called the Brady List for lying about his actions as a cop, and then later tried to get himself off that list by passing slanted legislation. While someone like McGee may be a harder candidate than an open seat, Kern's utter scumbaggery should make this an easier pickup than on the Senate side against Boyer. This is good for Democrats.
  • Sine Kerr, SD-13 (R) - GOP backbencher in a dark-red seat. This is getting repetitive, I know.
  • Jay Lawrence, HD-23 (R) - Lawrence is a kinda-Trumpy Representative who holds court in his Scottsdale-centered district, an incredibly wealthy suburb of Phoenix. He's not as vocally and visibly horrible as Kern, but he's still quite the nut. Lawrence is 84 years old and is slowing down with every passing day. I don't know if he can put on a solid campaign, which is why this filing might be slightly good for Democrats.
  • Vince Leach, SD-11: Kinda-nutjobby Senator in a exurban district of Tucson. Probably won't be in play next year but if Leach and his seatmates keep running their mouths...I dunno. His bomb-throwing might be slightly good for Democrats.
  • David Livingston, SD-22: Deep red seat for a meh GOP backbencher.
  • Jennifer Longdon, HD-24: Longdon's an incredibly inspirational and powerful freshman legislator, who ousted an incumbent on her way to winning a deep blue downtown seat. She's a rising star in the party and her staying around for another two years is good for Democrats.
  • Otoniel Navarrete, SD-30 (D) - Navarrete is a strong progressive voice in the Senate, albeit also a Meza ally. I'm glad he's in the seat and I like his work, but christ, dude can choose better allies.
  • Jennifer Pawlik, HD-17 (D) - Pawlik is often Klobuchar-esque in her management of campaign staff and employees (I know from firsthand experience), but is a decent campaigner in a suburban seat - the only elected Democrat above the school district level in Arizona's 5th Congressional District. Her running for a second term is good for Democrats.
  • Warren Petersen, HD-12 (R) - Petersen is the Republican House Majority Leader and a former State Senator. It makes sense he's running again. Deep red district although tiny clumps of it are starting to swing blue.
  • Pamela Powers Hannley, HD-9 (D) – progressive seatmate of Dr. Friese. Nice lady, glad she’s still in the fight.
  • Bret Roberts, HD-11 (R) - not as bombthrowy as Leach or Finchem, but still hopefully too conservative for his purpling district. Might be slightly good for Democrats.
  • Amish Shah, HD-24 (D) - a physician by trade, Shah snuck into office last year in the bloody primary that also catapulted Longdon to her seat. He's surprisingly conservative for a deep blue seat (cosponsored a bill calling porn a public health crisis), although not Robert Meza levels. His political views aren't much of an impediment in the minority, but if Dems get the majority his presence in the caucus might be slightly bad for Democrats.
  • Jeff Weninger, HD-17 (R) - Weninger is a weird Bitcoin fan and quasi-libertarian who represents the same suburban seat as Pawlik. He's too much of a doofus to have any dirt on him, so if Dems field a candidate next fall he'll probably have a slight incumbency advantage. This is slightly bad for Democrats.
People I Have No Clue About
  • George Algozzini, HD-20 (I) - George is a very interesting character running for an important district next year. On his Twitter account, this "Christian veteran and Independent voter" has retweeted former Gov. Jan Brewer (R), Donald Trump, and oddly enough Pete Buttigieg - whom he is seemingly supporting in the presidential race. George leans conservative and might be an interesting spoiler in this race, but his issues and donation links are both broken on his website so I doubt he'll run a decent race. Might be slightly good for Democrats if he qualifies.
  • Seth Blattman, SD-23 (D) - Blattman's a small business owner with local connections who's running in SD-23, facing 2018 nominee Daria Lohman in the primary. Lohman ran a stupidly bad campaign so any warm body may be better than her, and Blattman's no warm body from the looks of his LinkedIn. This is probably good for Democrats.
  • Nick Fierro, HD-16, (I) - Fierro is a left-leaning independent in a dark red district who's trying to outperform the baseline by not running as a Dem. I mean, I'm glad they have someone there.
  • Edward Hampton, SD-6 (R) - some ranod, can't find anything about him online. If he makes the R primary at all contentious in this super-close race, it might be slightly good for Democrats.
  • Jarret Hamstreet, HD-15 (R) - Jarret's some random conservative businessman. Funny last name but can't read into this any more than that.
  • Nadia Hanif, HD-4, (R) - Hanif is a doctor in Yuma running for a deep blue seat. She can knock herself out for all I care but I doubt anything will happen.
  • Suzanne Hug, HD-25 (D) - Hug's a random activist in HD25 who's better than the candidate last year, but that's a pretty low bar to clear. It's a ruby red district so there's no real impact here.
  • Justin Laos, HD-24 (R) - Justin's a software engineer with seemingly no prior political experience and with very little presence online. The district he's running in is quite blue so he's more or less an afterthought.
  • Kim Owens, CorpComm (R) – Experienced political operative with a legal background to boot. Could make the GOP primary pretty contentious, which might be slightly good for Democrats.
  • Felipe Reyes Perez, HD-11 (D) – random doctor in Tucson. Seems like a decent guy, might be able to put up a fight in the campaign. Might be good for Democrats.
  • Jon Saline, HD-6 (R) – Random rural attorney paranoid that we’re all gonna turn into Venezuela, per his Facebook’s “Why I’m Running”. This primary is looking like it’ll be a goddamn clusterfuck, which is good for Democrats.
  • Selina Bliss, HD-1 (R) – President of the Arizona Nurses’ Association. Hopefully a tick more moderate than the past occupant of that seat (David Stringer).
  • Steven Sensmeier, HD-1 (R) – Local GOP operative, and proud of it. Seems like a rank-and-file nut.
  • Stephanie Stahl Hamilton, HD-10 (D) - Small business owner, church camp leader, and liberal activist in Tucson. Very involved in the local political spheres. Decent replacement for Engel, who's moving on to the Senate.
  • Daniel Toporek, HD-20 (D) – Army Air National Guard warrant officer and Afghanistan vet. Little presence online but if he gets his campaign up to speed he could be a strong option for the seat, and his filing therefore might be good for Democrats.
  • Shea Stanfield, CorpComm (D) - Stanfield is a former teacher, counselor, and local environmental board member. Decent experience for the CorpComm position imo, and is hitting the ground running.
  • Jacqueline Parker, HD-16 (R) - former CorpComm staffer who likes to post incredibly racist "memes" about Obama on her personal FB page. Somehow might not be the most unqualified person running for this seat.
Important Challengers
  • Ted Carpenter, HD-28 (R) - now that's a name Arizona hasn't heard in a while! Carpenter is a former State Representative, serving from 1998-2006 before losing in a State Senate primary in 2006. Carpenter hails from a by-gone era of slightly-less-combative GOP candidates, and is definitely a more moderate option compared to the nutjobs HD28 has elected in the past, like Trump inauguration donor Maria Syms. In the short term, this is bad for Democrats - but the recruitment of an old warhorse is a telling sign that the local party knows it's losing ground. They hear the drumbeat of progress in the district, and they're scared shitless.
  • Paul Newman and Bill Mundell, CorpComm (D) - Mundell and Newman are both former CorpComm members, trying to run to get back on the board. Paul Newman served on the board from 2009-2013, Mundell from 1999-2009 as a Republican, after serving in the Arizona House of Representatives, also as a Republican. Mundell previously ran in 2016 and 2018, losing twice. In 2018 his campaign went extremely in the primary, implying a fellow Democrat was a puppet of the utilities in this state, and had supporters get mildly-moderately stalkish trying to prove a non-existent connection. Mundell lost in the primary, and that Democrat (Sears) lost in the general. I'm no fan of the guy, explicitly because of stunts like this. This pairing is slightly good for Democrats - they bring a lot of star power, but also a lot of hairbrained insanity on the part of William Mundell.
  • Debbie Nez-Manuel, HD-26 (D) - A Native American activist living on the Salt River reservation, Nez-Manuel originally primaried Sen. Mendez in 2016. Narrowly losing, she's filed this year for the open House seat that Rep. Blanc is vacating. I haven't heard of any other candidates running for the seat besides her and Rep. Salman, so hopefully that primary isn't as contentious as the Senate mess. Debbie's a great person and I'm glad to have the opportunity to vote her in while still keeping Mendez in the Senate.
  • Wendy Rogers, SD-6 (R) - The worst carpetbagger ever is back at it again. Rogers had an illustrious career in the Air Force, followed by a slightly less-illustrious career of losing four elections in a row (2010 SD-17, 2012 CD9 GOP Primary, 2014 CD9 General, and then the 2018 CD1 General). She's a loose cannon with a small base of support that seemingly will never die. She's gonna add her own spice to a primary that already has Hampton, Rep. Bob Thorpe (he has yet to actually file so no blurb about him), and possibly incumbent Sen. Sylvia Allen. It will be a shitshow, and that is good for Democrats.
  • David Alger, SD-24 (R) - a perennial candidate for the seat who sometimes runs with his wife Vicki on a House/Senate slate, Alger's not much to worry about or write about.
  • Kenneth Bowers Jr., HD-28 (R) - Bowers is another perennial candidate who's been pinging around District 28 for quite a while, angry that McGee wasn't Trumpy enough. He's never won a race a probably never will, but this distraction for Carpenter is at least slightly good for Democrats.
  • Forest John Moriarty, HD-16 (R) - Close Townsend ally, private school and religious rights campaigner. Goddamn patriot. Probably will take this seat, because God hates us all. Like I said, if two Republicans had to win, I'd pick Parker over this fuck.
  • Felicia French, SD-6 (D) - Ran for HD-6 last year and lost by only 577 votes. French is a decent campaigner with a nice background, and if the SD-6 primary on the GOP side is the mess it looks like it's gonna be, she may have a shot at this seat. Her return to the fray is good for Democrats.
  • Coral Evans, HD-6 (D) - Mayor of Flagstaff, the largest city in HD-6. Her recruitment for this seat is a sign that the party's going all-or-nothing in the district. If she can't win this seat this year, I dunno who can. It's critical that we pick this seat up. Very good for Democrats.
  • Sharon Girard, HD-8 (D) - While she wasn't the worst campaigner out there (see Lohman, Daria), Girard made several rookie mistakes in 2018 and ran a poor campaign in a rural district that required 100% effort and focus. It's disappointing that she's running again. If the party doesn't find other people there who can win the primary this could be bad for Democrats.
  • Michael Hernandez, SD-16 (R) - Libertarian-ish dude in SD16 who ran for Senate last year. Honestly a pretty nice guy and a relatively moderate R, although not the best campaigner. At least he'll give Townsend somewhat of a fight in the primary.
  • Eric Sloan, CorpComm (R) - Trumpist candidate who ran for the same position last year. His campaign imploded after it came out he racially harassed coworkers at his past job, and he ended up getting 14.5% in a 5-way race. Probably will be toast next year as well, but if he adds to the shitshow of a primary that could happen on that front then this could be slightly good for Democrats.
And that's finally it! Took me most of my morning to type up. I'm gonna try to push out another update in a few months - although I won't wait until December because this was such a large backlog.
submitted by hunter15991 to VoteBlue [link] [comments]

January 2017 - r/bitcoin recap

At the start of this month I made a post about the first week in bitcoin.
People seemed to like it, so I figured I'd do it for the whole month. I stop by here daily anyways.
For each day I basically picked out what seemed to be the most interesting news.
Let me know if you think I missed something. If people liked it, I can do it again next month.
A recap of January 2017 in bitcoin
Note: Scalability was discussed on literally every day, hence why it wasn't included in the list.
Thank you to everyone who is contributing to this exciting space!
Friendly reminder for February: Regardless of what size someone prefers their blocks or whether they like their cutlery hard or soft, don't be hostile to them. Insulting people is a bad way to convince them you're right. Let's focus on constructive, civilized discussion.
Edit: After a lot of positive feedback, I will definitely continue to do this. I'll add an archive on my site so nothing gets lost and I can add more links so the post doesn't get auto-moderated out each time.
Additionally, some people have asked to tip me. Whatever you were planning to send me, please donate it to Wikipedia instead!
submitted by SamWouters to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Subreddit Stats: GoldandBlack top posts from 2016-08-01 to 2019-06-12 11:22 PDT

Period: 1044.74 days
Submissions Comments
Total 1000 55684
Rate (per day) 0.96 53.28
Unique Redditors 295 6531
Combined Score 220956 394481

Top Submitters' Top Submissions

  1. 29422 points, 125 submissions: MasterTeacher123
    1. Pentagon Spent $4.6 Million on Lobster Tail and Crab in One Month (594 points, 95 comments)
    2. The Battle Isn't Right vs. Left. It’s Statism vs. Individualism (511 points, 66 comments)
    3. Kamala Harris Hopes You'll Forget Her Record as a Drug Warrior and Draconian Prosecutor (484 points, 50 comments)
    4. After the Supreme Court Said Unions Can’t Force Non-Members to Pay Dues, Almost All of Them Stopped (445 points, 123 comments)
    5. Why the Hammer and Sickle Should Be Treated Like the Swastika (423 points, 56 comments)
    6. No One Is Coming to Rescue You—Especially Not a Presidential Candidate (416 points, 28 comments)
    7. AOC's Green New Deal Is a U.S. Version of Mao’s Disastrous Great Leap Forward (412 points, 82 comments)
    8. The Green New Deal Is a Trojan Horse for Socialism (410 points, 81 comments)
    9. Minimum Wage Hikes Are Killing Jobs in California's Poorest Communities, Study Says (408 points, 125 comments)
    10. Victims of Communism Day 2019 (402 points, 96 comments)
  2. 26598 points, 114 submissions: Anen-o-me
    1. Laws for thee but not for me! Cop destroys civilian property and flips off citizen, citizen flips him back and gets mobbed by cops (936 points, 308 comments)
    2. Capitalism's Evil Quest... (827 points, 77 comments)
    3. Free Assange (714 points, 77 comments)
    4. Another brutally honest comment on the US army post (630 points, 79 comments)
    5. Amazon will donate 2% of purchases to the charity of your choice at no cost to you. I chose the Ludwig Von Mises Institute, they received $3,500 in donations this quarter! Please use Smile.Amazon.com and choose a charity! (615 points, 150 comments)
    6. Assange has reportedly been arrested by British Police after a sudden and illegal termination of his asylum. Sad proof of the dark times for all supporters of freedom in the internet age :( (571 points, 198 comments)
    7. The perfect woman doesn't exis... (504 points, 52 comments)
    8. What most Americans have been indoctrinated to think. (493 points, 23 comments)
    9. TIL that farmers in USA are hacking their John Deere tractors with Ukrainian firmware, which seems to be the only way to actually own the machines and their software, rather than rent them for lifetime from John Deere. (478 points, 114 comments)
    10. Anarchapulco: Ron Paul takes the stage... (468 points, 37 comments)
  3. 17675 points, 81 submissions: Anenome5
    1. The Most Perfect Libertarian Meme I Ever Did See... "Unchecked People" (843 points, 45 comments)
    2. Spread this far and wide! (654 points, 146 comments)
    3. Colorado sheriff is willing to go to jail rather than enforce a proposed gun-seizing law... (644 points, 52 comments)
    4. Ocasio-Cortez falls for the Sweden Socialism meme: "I’m Going to Turn America into Another Sweden, Not Venezuela" --- the Swedish are constantly bemused by this, they're more capitalistic than the US is (613 points, 143 comments)
    5. Jury awards Sen. Rand Paul $580,000 in civil suit against neighbor who attacked him (577 points, 78 comments)
    6. Supreme Court poised to limit police power to seize property --- fucking finally (456 points, 44 comments)
    7. Ancap Flag Painting (439 points, 30 comments)
    8. Former Reddit CEO Pao: "Regulation will give them an excuse to take on people and their bad behavior." --- Regulation against hate speech would give companies cover to censor political opponents in a way that they wouldn't have to take personal responsibility for. The Gov forced them, they can say. (411 points, 80 comments)
    9. Chinese driver gets ticket for scratching his face because AI software thought he was using a cellphone :| (374 points, 27 comments)
    10. With Government Shut Down, Citizens Forced To Interfere In Their Own Lives (361 points, 16 comments)
  4. 12663 points, 67 submissions: JobDestroyer
    1. After Winning a $15 Minimum Wage, Fast Food Workers Now Battle Unfair Firings (590 points, 296 comments)
    2. TIL a Japanese sushi chain CEO majorly contributed to a drop in piracy off the Somalian coast by providing the pirates with training as tuna fishermen (546 points, 27 comments)
    3. Sign from protest against proposed "Red Flag" law in New Hampshire. (442 points, 71 comments)
    4. In 3 Years, Cops Have Killed 450% More Citizens Than 4 Decades of Mass Shootings COMBINED (348 points, 107 comments)
    5. Some Uganda libertarians just started a liberty library! (336 points, 30 comments)
    6. 3D-printed guns are back, and this time they are unstoppable (330 points, 73 comments)
    7. Venezuela Raises Minimum Wage 3,000% and Lots of Workers Get Fired (322 points, 38 comments)
    8. The effects of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe. (287 points, 21 comments)
    9. End the war in Afghanistan :: Rand Paul's AFGHAN Service Act would put an end to Afghanistan. (276 points, 40 comments)
    10. My husband, Rand Paul, and our family have suffered intimidation and threats (273 points, 74 comments)
  5. 4507 points, 26 submissions: properal
    1. Record Number of Americans Call Government Our Biggest Problem (486 points, 35 comments)
    2. Venezuela Isn’t Just a Failed State. It’s a Failure of Socialism. (350 points, 84 comments)
    3. 19 in 20 Americans Don't Know World Poverty is Falling | Chelsea Follett (339 points, 64 comments)
    4. /Economics/ discovers Property Rights as a solution to Climate change. (256 points, 63 comments)
    5. Why the Left Isn't Convinced by Your Economics Arguments | Ryan McMaken (197 points, 251 comments)
    6. FBI's "Suicide Letter" to Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., and the Dangers of Unchecked Surveillance (185 points, 4 comments)
    7. Truth in Itemization (180 points, 21 comments)
    8. If Imports Were Truly Bad for an Economy, Military Blockades Would Not Exist (173 points, 60 comments)
    9. Ron Paul Receives Faithless Electoral Vote (168 points, 23 comments)
    10. First they came for... (164 points, 29 comments)
  6. 4310 points, 16 submissions: MrZer
    1. Guy gets jumped for disrespecting Stalin statue (570 points, 109 comments)
    2. Cop slaps phone out of teens hand and flips off teen. (519 points, 87 comments)
    3. Milton Friedman on Tariffs (363 points, 69 comments)
    4. Trump quietly signs largest wilderness preservation bill (354 points, 88 comments)
    5. Muslim youth group cleans up national parks amid government shutdown (Private individuals taking care of things, I thought only the State could handle this task) (307 points, 24 comments)
    6. I was optimistic about the French Protests... Until I read their demands (304 points, 175 comments)
    7. "imagine checks without taxes" Almost 100k likes on Twitter (292 points, 56 comments)
    8. PepsiCo sues 4 Indian farmers for $150,000 each for ‘infringing its rights’ by growing the potato variety used in its Lays chips (285 points, 72 comments)
    9. Yellow vests: Protesters in Paris set fire to dozens of cars in anger at millionaire Notre Dame donations - Demonstrators voice frustration at equivalent of £770m raised for cathedral while workers' demands remain unmet (277 points, 77 comments)
    10. Next Venezuela: Bolivia rolls out Universal Healthcare (240 points, 46 comments)
  7. 3703 points, 21 submissions: LibertyAboveALL
    1. Illinois may tax private retirement funds to pay public worker pensions (396 points, 103 comments)
    2. Voters in Switzerland approve stronger gun control laws by nearly two-thirds despite resistance (304 points, 155 comments)
    3. Mom Arrested For Leaving 8- and 9-Year-Olds Home Alone for Less Than an Hour (264 points, 69 comments)
    4. Bartender charged for serving man who allegedly went on to kill 8 people (259 points, 148 comments)
    5. The Insane Battle To Sabotage a New Apartment Building Explains San Francisco's Housing Crisis (193 points, 78 comments)
    6. U.S. Student Loan Debt Sets Record, Doubling Since Recession (175 points, 72 comments)
    7. Chinese teens are rejecting Communist Party propaganda and the government is freaking out (167 points, 29 comments)
    8. Julian Assange offers job to fired Google employee who wrote "anti-diversity" memo - "Censorship is for losers." (161 points, 50 comments)
    9. Ben Shapiro's view on Assange arrest is getting him roasted by many of his fans in the YT comment section. Hilarious! (159 points, 124 comments)
    10. Africans are being sold as slaves in Libya. Thanks, Hillary Clinton. (156 points, 22 comments)
  8. 2862 points, 10 submissions: vfhuuuuu
    1. "The welfare state is the oldest con game in the world. First you take people's money away quietly and then you give some of it back to them flamboyantly" - Thomas Sowell (613 points, 51 comments)
    2. Only about 21% of American millionaires have received any inheritance at all, with only 3% receiving over $1,000,000, study shows. (558 points, 99 comments)
    3. I basically just sat through 6 hours of statist propaganda (304 points, 113 comments)
    4. TIL that you're not required to wear a seat belt in New Hampshire if you're over 18 (304 points, 81 comments)
    5. Latinos are twice as likely to vote Libertarian than the general population (303 points, 130 comments)
    6. A Christmas Carol: A play about a greedy man becoming generous through social interaction, not state-sanctioned violence. (238 points, 30 comments)
    7. Last month, Washington DC raised taxes on Uber and Lyft to pay for it's shitty Metro system. To give you an idea of what this money will be used for; the city plans on spending $320 Million dollars to build ONE station. (162 points, 50 comments)
    8. In Bermuda, where Black and White people make roughly equal amounts of money, the IQ gap between races does not exist. (151 points, 193 comments)
    9. Just a quick reminder that the Republican party is just as anti-liberty as the Democrats, and "Libertarians" that support it should be ignored and downvoted. (117 points, 106 comments)
    10. Being a Gay Communist is as ironic as being a Jewish Neo-Nazi. (112 points, 65 comments)
  9. 2768 points, 7 submissions: LosFajitas
    1. When a capitalist tries to sell his product or service for the highest price they can get, they are seen as greedy. When a worker tries to sell their labor for the highest price they can get, they are seen as noble and deserving. (488 points, 138 comments)
    2. Liberals: We need to end the two party system! *Howard Schultz announces possible presidential run as an independent * Liberals: WOAAAHH THERE BUDDY SLOW DOWN! (444 points, 54 comments)
    3. I'm looking forward to the Democratic Primary because it's going to be one giant competition on who can give people the most free things. (408 points, 132 comments)
    4. It's no longer about revenue, taxes are now punitive measures. (400 points, 134 comments)
    5. "Judges Plead Guilty in Scheme to Jail Youths for Profit" oh but that can never happen in gov courts (358 points, 67 comments)
    6. Andrew Yang is one of the most arrogant people I have ever seen speak (355 points, 243 comments)
    7. Anyone else hate when people refer to a presidential candidate as "the person who will save this country" (315 points, 34 comments)
  10. 2264 points, 12 submissions: ayanamirs
    1. People Are Hiring Private Police Squads in Detroit (HBO) (375 points, 64 comments)
    2. Paul Krugman (Nobel 2008) (321 points, 52 comments)
    3. If you want #bitcoin to rise, teach Austrian Economics to people. (212 points, 167 comments)
    4. "A lot of people disagree with me, but I think people should be happy to pay taxes" < Obama to brazilians (210 points, 62 comments)
    5. Dutch national newspaper urges people to sell all their Bitcoins as it undermines the government, could destabilise the economy and reduces the power of central banks. Sounds like a reason to buy to me (192 points, 32 comments)
    6. US socialists can't deal against brazilians (167 points, 39 comments)
    7. Could someone please explain this? (161 points, 23 comments)
    8. Guns Law in Brazil is very restricted. 63880 deaths by year. (154 points, 27 comments)
    9. Look this answer (123 points, 134 comments)
    10. Congratulations To Bolivarian Socialism - Venezuela Now Has To Import Oil From The US (120 points, 18 comments)

Top Commenters

  1. JobDestroyer (7914 points, 897 comments)
  2. natermer (4011 points, 342 comments)
  3. Anen-o-me (3256 points, 535 comments)
  4. MasterTeacher123 (3201 points, 176 comments)
  5. Lemmiwinks99 (3185 points, 439 comments)
  6. E7ernal (2549 points, 472 comments)
  7. Anenome5 (2463 points, 430 comments)
  8. nosmokingbandit (2320 points, 174 comments)
  9. Perleflamme (2226 points, 634 comments)
  10. phaethon0 (2216 points, 144 comments)

Top Submissions

  1. Does that sound like a work of a journalist? by deleted (1064 points, 115 comments)
  2. Laws for thee but not for me! Cop destroys civilian property and flips off citizen, citizen flips him back and gets mobbed by cops by Anen-o-me (936 points, 308 comments)
  3. The Most Perfect Libertarian Meme I Ever Did See... "Unchecked People" by Anenome5 (843 points, 45 comments)
  4. Capitalism's Evil Quest... by Anen-o-me (827 points, 77 comments)
  5. Amazing way to not pay Taxes by ArbitraryOrder (794 points, 71 comments)
  6. Free Assange by Anen-o-me (714 points, 77 comments)
  7. Man who lives in massive palace surrounded by priceless art and catered to by staff of thousands asks if people really need so many material objects by TheJucheisLoose (690 points, 75 comments)
  8. His name was Gary Webb. by TrainingWeekend (675 points, 66 comments)
  9. Presented without comment by newimprovement (658 points, 152 comments)
  10. Spread this far and wide! by Anenome5 (654 points, 146 comments)

Top Comments

  1. 284 points: BakeshopNewb's comment in Officers Had No Duty to Protect Students in Parkland Massacre, Judge Rules
  2. 272 points: locolarue's comment in I was optimistic about the French Protests... Until I read their demands
  3. 268 points: Glothr's comment in Spread this far and wide!
  4. 247 points: hairguythrowaway4171's comment in Lawmakers in Hawaii Propose Repealing Second Amendment
  5. 245 points: kurwacudownie's comment in Cop slaps phone out of teens hand and flips off teen.
  6. 240 points: properal's comment in Were doomed: "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 70% tax on the super-rich is more popular than Trump's tax cuts, new poll shows" --- democracy sucks.
  7. 239 points: MizchiefKilz's comment in Americans Continue to Flee to Low-Tax States
  8. 235 points: TheKleen's comment in Don’t Lower the Voting Age, Raise It
  9. 231 points: Boltrag's comment in After Winning a $15 Minimum Wage, Fast Food Workers Now Battle Unfair Firings
  10. 229 points: MarshmellowPotatoPie's comment in Does that sound like a work of a journalist?
Generated with BBoe's Subreddit Stats
submitted by subreddit_stats to subreddit_stats [link] [comments]

An Overview of Arizona Primary Races - Part 4: Legislative Races 11-20

Welcome to my omnibus compendium of Arizona’s upcoming primary races (set to take place August 28th – early voting ballots should have been mailed out August 1st). Arizona’s a really interesting state (I may be a hair biased), since it not only is home to two to four swing House seats and a high-profile Senate race, but also a vulnerable governor (thanks to the teacher walkout earlier this year) and tenuous majorities in both state houses that could – theoretically – deliver a Dem trifecta this fall. Other statewide candidates have also been on the attack, and few Republicans are safe in this climate. If Dr. Tipirneni’s massive swing in April can be replicated across the state, the Dems will pull off a coup of stupidly high proportions.
If you’re interested about which district you live in, check https://azredistricting.org/districtlocato. If you want to get involved with your local Democratic party, find your legislative district on the previous link (NOT CD), and then search for your LD’s name at this link. Feel free to attend meetings, they’re a great way to get involved with candidates and like-minded individuals. If you wish to donate to a “clean elections” candidate (mentioned in the post as “running clean”), you will have to live in that candidate’s legislative district to do so. Statewide “clean” candidates can accept from anyone, although al such candidates probably have hit their goals for the cycle.
If you are a registered Independent and do not want to vote at the polls, you will need to request and early ballot using the website of your county’s recorder. Example links for Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal. Others available if needed.
Race ratings for listed primaries will be listed as Solid/Likely/Leans/Tossup and are not indicative of my own preference for that seat. I’ll denote my personal primary preferences at the end of this series.
Some candidates have filed as write-in candidates for their primary. I’m unsure about the rules behind this, and if a win means they automatically appear on the ballot in November – currently in process of verifying. For example, in 2016 Gary Swing and Merissa Hamilton both won their respective Senate primaries (Green/Libertarian) as write-ins, but only Swing was on the ballot in the fall.
If you have any questions about voting in the primary, which races are the most contested, and how to get involved with other Democrats in Arizona, feel free to PM me.
ALL OPINIONS ARE MY OWN IN MY CAPACITY AS A VOTER IN ARIZONA, AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF ANY ORGANIZATIONS I WORK/ED FOR OR AM/WAS A MEMBER OF. THIS POST IS IN NO WAY ENDORSED BY THE ARIZONA DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR ANY SUB-ORGANIZATION THEREOF.
View Statewide post here.
View Congressional post here
View Legislative Races 1-10 here

State Legislative Races

So as mentioned in the intro post, this’ll cover not only the federal and statewide candidates but also the state legislative races. Arizona has 30 districts, each with 1 Senator and 2 Representatives. Republicans hold meh majorities in both chambers (17-13 in the Senate, and 35-25 in the House), but Dems think this is the year for a potential flip of chambers. Due to time constraints I’ll try to focus on races with primaries, and write a primer about important general election races later – but hopefully I can get all of them done. Our party went balls to the wall and recruited 114 Democratic candidates to run this cycle, meaning that there’s a candidate running in every race across Arizona, in even the reddest of red districts. It also means there’s a lot of blurbs to write.
One additional point to make – the vast majority of people using the Arizona Clean Elections funding source are running for the state legislature. Their COH statistics will be denoted as ($XXX COH, Clean). This - for the most part – means that the only additional money they can expect in the race will come afteif they win their respective primaries, roughly to the tune of $20K-$25K or so.
So without further ado, the districts!
District 11
For our first district in the second installment of the legislative series, we head over to Northern Tucson/Casa Grande, a district that – like LD8 before it – is surprisingly only Leans Red despite its demographics and geographical location. The Republican Senate incumbent is noted theocratic asshole Steve Smith, who as mentioned earlier is trying to make the hop over into Congress. His Republican heir apparent is State Representative Vince Leach ($118.5K COH). The other incumbent Republican Representative, Mark Finchem ($44.4K COH) is running for re-election in the House, with Constable Bret Roberts ($16.7K COH, Clean) and retired carpenter Howie Jones ($700 COH) running for the second open spot. Roberts has been endorsed by Finchem and Leach and seems set to take the second nomination. His choice of running clean is odd, especially as a party-approved candidate.
Roberts may make it through to the general, but he’ll most likely run into rural liberal powerhouse Hollace Lyon ($93K COH). Unlike in LD8, the House candidate (Lyon) seems set to drag the Democratic slate, kicking and screaming, into relevancy. Wife of the president of the Arizona School Boards Association (Linda Lyon) and retired USAF Colonel, Lyon brings a great combination of education bona fides, fundraising/campaigning chops (She has outraised everyone in the district - Leach’s COH advantage is only because of his past warchest), and rural appeal (she channels Amy McGrath’s rhetoric to great success. Lyon would be a great single-shot candidate for the candidate.
Except she’s not running alone. Perennial candidate Barry McCain (no link because his website’s dead and he’s a bit of a nut, also $4 COH) managed to qualify for the ballot again this year by some miracle. Local and state party leaders, wary of ceding a ballot slot to nigh-invisible candidate, recruited local teacher and education advocate Marcela Quiroz ($630 COH, Clean – needs $5’s). While Quiroz has had some trouble getting her campaign ff the ground, she is by far a better #2 than McCain. In the Senate, rancher Ralph Atchue ($15.4K, Clean) is taking a second crack at the seat. Atchue didn’t generate many waves last time, and this time – if he does win – it will be on the backs of Lyon and Quiroz. The presence of Green Party write-in Mohammad Arif won’t help.
As mentioned before, the general rests squarely on the shoulders of Hollace Lyon, and partially on Quiroz’s as well. Both House and Senate candidates have a defined rural appeal, but only Lyon seems capable of actually translating that into results. If the statewide wave is large enough, she’ll drag Quiroz and Atchue in on her coattails.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem Senate uncontested. Solid Lyon, Likely Quiroz. GOP Senate uncontested, Solid Finchem, Likely Roberts. Leans GOP Senate, Tossup House Roberts/Lyon, Leans GOP Finchem/Quiroz.
District 12
Popping back up north somewhat, we take a look at LD12 – located in the heart of CD5. Centered in Gilbert and Southeast Mesa, 12 is so stupidly red, only LD1 and LD5 are worse. On the Republican side, incumbent Representative Travis Grantham ($26K COH) is being joined by incumbent Senator Warren Petersen ($49K COH) in their quest for House nominations, and are being primaried from the right by Mr “Ban All Public Schools” Nick Myers ($600 COH), and from the center by adjunct professor Blake Sacha ($36.5K COH). In the Senate, charter school owner and incumbent State Rep. Eddie Farnsworth ($26.2K COH) is running, being challenged from the nominal center by businessman Jimmy Lindblom ($25K COH). Lindblom still holds most of Farnsworth’s conservative views, but is attacking Farnsworth regarding how corrupt of a legislator he is, profiting off of charter school requirements he passes.
On the Democratic side, Elizabeth Brown ($15.5K) is rehashing a 2016 Senate run, and will be joined by two House nominees – currently that looks like teacher Joe Bisaccia ($12K COH, Clean) and lawyer Lynsey Robinson ($16.88K COH, Clean). Robinson is actually running on a slate with 2014 House nominee DJ Rothans ($150 COH, Clean), but his campaign has not gotten as much traction as hers.
Given the breakdown of this district it is highly unlikely a Dem. pulls it off either in the House or Senate, and with the amount of district infighting that’s ongoing (per rumors, Brown and Bisaccia hate each other’s guts and are causing a lot of chaos because of that) that chance goes from slim to none. The best bet in this scenario is for Sacha and Lindblom to pull off the upset in primaries. While they’re at best mediocre friends of public education (Sacha) and at worse a slightly cleaner version of the incumbent (Lindblom), they’re a step up from the clusterfuck currently ongoing in the district.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem Senate uncontested. Likely Bisaccia, Likely Robinson. Leans Farnsworth, Likely Petersen, Leans Finchem. All Solid GOP general.
District 13
District 13 could be a bit of a Roy Moore-ish scenario for Democrats, at least in the Senate.
So I’ll get the House out of the way first. Reps Darin Mitchell ($7.3K COH) and Tim Dunn ($76K COH)- both Republicans – are the current Representatives for the district. Mitchell has built a long-term brand in the district, while Dunn was appointed n February 2018 following…well we’ll get to that in a second. They are being challenged from the right by absolute wackadoodle Trey Terry ($9K COH), and from the center(ish) by Goodyear ViceMayor Joanne Osborne ($10.5K COH). Mitchell and Dunn seem set to make it out of their primaries by virtue of their incumbency (and Dunn’s surprisingly large warchest), although if Osborne can convince enough moderate Republicans to vote for her (she seems to be against some anti-publicEd measures here in AZ) she stands a fraction of a chance. Mitchell and Dunn will face Democrat Thomas Tzitzura ($1.1K COH, Clean), a veteran, former teacher, and adorable old guy. He’s set to lose by 30.
But we’re interested in the Senate.
Currently, the Senate seat is held by farmer Sine Kerr ($40.6K COH), an unimposing backbencher appointed to the seat in February after Steve Motnenegro resigned his seat when he tried – and failed -to win the GOP nomination for CD8. She’s being challenged in the primary by businessman Brent Backus ($4K COH), and in the general by retired Air Force veteran Michelle Harris (4.8K COH, Clean). If Kerr wins the primary, her general election should be relatively easy – the last Democrat to run for Senate here didn’t crack 35%.
But there’s another Republican running.
On February 1st, 2018, the Arizona State House voted to expel sexual assault perpetrator Don Shooter ($18K COH), a longtime Senator and at that time Representative from LD13. A report over 80 pages long detailing his deeds was filed with the House, and they had no choice but to kick him to the curb. His career seemed dead.
Ever the enigma, Shooter didn’t stop collecting signatures for the Senate run he was planning on this year (pending Montenegro’s resignation), and on the last day to file for the State Senate he submitted signatures to run again in LD13. This upended Kerr’s easy walk to re-election – while Shooter’s statewide brand was kneecapped, the voters in LD13 by and large seemed unphased by his wrongdoings at the state legislature. And with a stronger name-rec in the area and a fundraising system that doesn’t seem to be phased by his misdeeds, Shooter seems set to snatch primary victory from the jaws of defeat. With the anti-sexual abuser vote set to be split by Backus, Arizona’s Roy Moore (I don’t use that lightly, he preyed on college and high school interns as well) could make it to the general.
For all of Harris’s pros, she falters where Lyon succeeds as a candidate – both in funds, branding, and campaign intensity. If Kerr or even Backus win the Senate nomination, Harris is toast. But if Shooter makes it through somehow, the retired Master Sergeant stands a chance at turning this district blue. It will hinge on the morals of LD13 independents, and AZGOP rescinding support for Shooter if he sneaks through the primaries.
Will the stars align for Harris? Will Shooter’s attempt to reclaim his former glory turn this district blue?
Probably not.
But “probably” isn’t good enough in 2018.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem primaries uncontested. Leans Shooter, Likely Mitchell/Kerr. Safe GOP House general. Leans GOP Senate.
District 14
Like past districts, LD14 is more of a question as to who wins the GOP primary than who wins the general. The Dems are fielding businessman Bob Karp ($1K COH, Clean) and businesswoman Shelley Renee-Leon ($1.5K COH, Clean) for the House, while there’s a competitive primary between 2016 nominee Jaime Alvarez ($1.2K COH, Clean), and teacher Mendy Gomez ($1.4K COH, Clean). Alvarez should make it through the primary due to his name rec from 2016, but with teachers gaining prominence in post-strike Arizona, Gomez could take it from him.
A safe GOP district, the main question is how races on the right pan out. The House is rather tame, incumbent Rep. Becky Nutt ($19.3K COH) and outgoing Senator Gail Griffin ($31.4K COH) are uncontested for the nomination there. For Senate, there is a three-way battle between former House speaker David Gowan ($54K COH), incumbent State Rep. Drew John ($38K), and Army vet/businesswoman Lori Kilpatrick ($15.7K COH, Clean). Gowan, a candidate for CD1 back in 2016, has come to reclaim his old LD14 fiefdom, but Drew John seems hesitant to give it up without a fight. If Rep. John can hold steady, he’ll deprive the GOP of a massively-experienced ex-legislator and replace him with a freshman, milquetoast backbencher in John. Any nominee seems set to win the general, but if Gowan strikes out again here the State GOP will be in a slightly weaker position than before.
I realize counting Dems out is bad to do – the district’s a hair bluer than 13 – but if Harris at least fits her rural vibe somewhat, Gomez/Alvarez and the House slate unequivocally don’t. The Dems best hope here is just Gowan losing in the primaries.
hunter15991 Rating: Tossup Dem. Senate. Dem House uncontested. Tossup GOP Senate (John/Gowan), GOP House uncontested. All Safe GOP general.
District 15
If the doom and gloom in LD14 has got you down, you may want to try on LD15 for size. Located smack dab in the middle of AZ-06, LD15 is a microcosm of the fight Heather Ross will be fighting in the congressional district as a whole. Although the district as a whole has been red legislatively for eons, in 2016 both Sherriff Paul Penzone and Maricopa County Community Colleges Boardmember Linda Thor posted good results in LD15 – showing a capacity not only for sane Democratic votes, but also f or pro-education votes.
The GOP field in LD15 is set – former teacher and “moderate” Republican Representative Heather Carter ($45K COH) is dropping massive checks on her quest to secure the Senate seat in this district, while House Majority Leader John Allen ($46.6K COH) and incumbent Senator Nancy Barto ($24K) are running for the two House seats.
The Dem. field is well suited to meet them. In the Senate, teacher Kristin Dybvig-Pawelko ($3.16K COH, Clean – and hereafter KDP) is squaring off against Carter, while 3 Dem. candidates are vying for the two Dem. House nominations in the district. Teacher Jennifer Samuels is running as a ticket with KDP, both heavily emphasizing their education chops. Prosecutor Julie Gunnigle is gunning (pun intended) for the second spot, crafting her campaign around a strong anti-corruption message. Her legal chops are visible in her many livestreams she does, and if she fails at a run here (or for CD6) she’s got a promising practice to return to. 2016 nominee and lawyer Tonya MacBeth is the third candidate in the race – although she has not been able to adapt to the competitive primary Gunnigle and Samuels have thrust on her. With Gunnigle taking a lot of big-name endorsements (like Steve Farley) and Samuels pairing up with KDP, MacBeth is on track to get boxed out of the nomination.
In the general, Samuels and Gunnigle dodge a massive bullet, as moderate Republican Heather Carter is running for the Senate this cycle instead of one of the two House slots. While this does sink KDP (her main strength is education, but Carter counteracts that quite nicely), Samuels and Gunnigle have an opening against Allen and Barto. Both incumbent GOP legislators have been vocally against the recent teacher strike, with Allen leveraging his power as House Majority Leader to whip GOP members (like Carter, coincidentally) into line to vote against Dem. bills designed to find some sort of a fix to the teacher crisis. If the Dem. nominees can adequately tie Barto to Allen and Allen to the funding catastrophe in Arizona, then the same metrics that could push Ross over the finish line can push them over as well. The county party realizes this, having opened up an LD office here far earlier than was expected by anyone.
It likely will remain in GOP hands, but the dark money needed to protect what should be a safe seat for Republicans will absolutely send some Dems across the 50%+1 mark elsewhere in the state.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem. Senate uncontested. Likely Gunnigle/Samuels. GOP primary uncontested. Likely Carter, Leans Allen/Barto.
District 16
Located in deep-red East Mesa and Apache Junction, LD16 is a splash of cold water after such a rosy preview of LD15. Currently held by Senator David Farnsworth ($4K), retiring Representative Doug Coleman, and Tea PartieFurry fan Kelly Townsend ($32.4K). In the running for the second House seat being abandoned by Coleman are Apache PD Officer Stephen Kridler ($2K COH), businessman John Fillmore ($19K COH), activist Liza Godzich ($20K COH), and moderate-ish Tara Phelps ($26K COH, Clean). Phelps has been receiving tacit Democratic support in the area, as the Democratic primary (we’ll get to it in a moment) is relatively uncompetitive. Godzich is receiving Townsend’s stamp of approval, which for the most part sets up a Phelps v. Godzich race for the second slot after Townsend. However, a nominally-even race is slanted by the presence of Fillmore and Kridler, who by nature of their platforms are set to pull more from the right than the center. There’s a decent chance a pro-PublicEd Republican makes it through to the general this November.
On the Senate side, Farnsworth is being challenged in the primary by “Big” Michael Hernandez ($2K COH), an anti-establishment character running a hair left of Farnsworth. Anecdotally, he’s getting along quite well with the Democrat in the race, Ben Carmitchel (bencarmitchelforaz - $710 COH, Clean and needs $5’s). Although Hernandez doesn’t seem like he’ll make it to the general, he’s undoubtedly a cheery face this election. In the general, Carmitchel is joined by former teacher Sharon Stinard ($3.4K COH), as well as by Green Party write-in and former Democratic nominee for WY-AL Richard Grayson) ($0 COH). Stinard, Carmitchel, and Grayson all face a touch climb in the general – the best this district can feasibly hope for is for Phelps to make it through the Republican primary.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem primaries uncontested. Likely Farnsworth, Likely Townsend, Tossup (Phelps/Godzich). Solid GOP General.
District 17
Before I begin this segment, it’s wise for me to inform readers (however many there are) that I was previously employed by the Democratic slate in LD17, before being forced out for what in my mind are senseless reasons. I have tried not to let the firing itself impact my judgement re. this district, but the fact that Dem. staffers in this district (the people I was replaced with) are by-and-large woefully inexperienced cannot be overlooked.
District 17 is a super-crucial district for the Dems this cycle, being targeted both by the state and national DLCC. It’s the home district of House Speaker JD Mesnard ($143K COH), who is currently running for the open Senate seat in the district. The second Representative, running for re-election, is Jeff Weninger ($79.1K COH), a backbencher who focuses most of his time on passing bills related to bitcoin/blockchain technology. The party-backed candidate for Mesnard’s old seat is Chandler Vice Mayor Nora Ellen ($91.7K COH) – coincidentally Mesnard’s mom. They face RN Julie Willoughby in the primaries, who is receiving a surprising amount of backing from anti-Mesnard forces in the GOP and seems set to make the primary a bit of a slugfest. Still, Ellen most likely will advance to November.
The Democratic nominees for the district are hospital administrator Steve Weichert ($13K COH) and education consultant/former teacher Jennifer Pawlik. Both are running on a strong, education-first platform, and when I left were attacking Mesnard for his connection to Ellen and for his poor education votes.
While the district is inching closer to blue (it’s a lot swingier than one would expect) and party support is increasing, I need to take a moment and comment about the staffing situation. After my friend and I were forced out (pay and responsibilities gradually reduced to a token position), staffing duties were handed over to volunteers and political newbies, who requested training from us in practically every aspect of running a campaign. I don’t claim to be a campaign guru myself, but the current campaign manager had difficulty figuring out basic algebra, and an Excel sheets with a pre-generated set of instructions (click this tab for X, this tab for Y). Combine this with an incredible disdain by both candidates to call for money outside of their immediate circle, and there is cause for concern. Thankfully the party can allocate additional resources to the area, but I don’t know how much they’d be willing to shell out.
The ingredients are all there. The cooks aren’t.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem primaries uncontested. GOP Senate uncontested, Likely Weninger, Leans Ellen. Tossup Senate, Tossup House 1, Solid House GOP 2 (Dem. uncontested).
District 18
Immediately adjacent to LD17 is LD18 – which is just as swingy of a seat. It is currently – surprisingly – majority-Democrat, held by Senator Sean Bowie ($123K COH), a moderate Democrat who won this seat in 2016 by running against a Trumpist Republican who turned off a lot of the swing voters in the district. He faces the same Trumpist Republican, Frank Schmuck (yes, that’s his real name – and $125.7K COH) this fall.
One of his House counterparts, Mitzi Epstein ($37.3K COH), winning alongside Bowie in 2016. The second Representative, however, is GOP loyalist Jill Norgaard ($65.5K COH), a rank-and-file Republican who has had to quickly adopt a moderate stance now that her district is a target for the Dems to fully flip this November. In the general she will face either education activist Jennifer Jermaine ($15.1K COH) or DSA activist/pastry chef LaDawn Stuben ($12.7K COH, Clean). While Stuben was able to raise her $5’s rather quickly, most DSA activist attention has turned elsewhere to Westbrook/Phoenix City Council, and her campaign is slowing down just as Jermaine is catching fire. It’ll most likely be Epstein/Jermaine in the fall.
But Norgaard has a competitive primary to fight through as well. Other candidates include former Arizona Board of Regents member Greg Patterson ($800 COH), former Tempe Union Schoolboard candidate and vocal anti-abortion activist Don Hawker ($600 COH), and AZGOP minority outreach chair Farhana Shifa ($17.7K COH). Shifa seems like the most likely 2nd GOP nominee given her party background, but Patterson matches her tit for tat on the resume (yet has a surprising gap in terms of fundraising).
In the general, this seat will be one the GOP tries to take back from the Democrats, in an attempt to return to their supermajority from pre-2016. However, the changing political attitudes in the area are pretty indicative that, if anything, the district is heading further blue this fall. It’s not without the realm of doubt to see a full Dem. slate here – Bowie, Epstein, Jermaine – where four years prior it was fully red.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem Senate uncontested. GOP Senate uncontested, Likely Epstein/Jermaine. Likely Norgaard, Leans Shifa. Leans Dem Senate, Leans Dem House 1 (Epstein/Shifa), Tossup House 2 (Norgaard/Jermaine).
District 19
Thankfully for me, LD19 is quite a snoozefest. Democratic Senator Lupe Contreras ($73 COH) is running uncontested in both the primary and the general. Democratic Representative Diego Espinoza ($1.5K COH) is running for re-election, with a noticeable battle for the second House seat ongoing. The decision by Rep. Mark Cardenas to pursue higher office (he failed) led to this seat opening up in LD19. Avondale City councilman Lorenzo Sierra ($16.2K COH) is the frontrunner in the race, having secured both Contreras’, Espinoza’s, and Cardenas’s endorsements. But he’s facing opposition from Tolleson Union High School District Governing Board Vice President Devin DelPalacio ($2.9K COH). He is running on a strong pro-education platform, but as a former student of Tolleson Union I don’t consider him to be the best pro-PublicEd example in Arizona.
No Republicans have filed for this district, making the primary the general election.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem Senate uncontested. Likely Espinoza, Leans Sierra. Uncontested general.
District 20
And if LD19 was a snoozefest, LD20 is a wild ride. A Leans-GOP district in a normal year, it’s receiving a lot of attention from both parties. Three of the four possible races (GOP/Dem House, GOP/Dem Senate) are contested primaries. Incumbent Senator Kimberly Yee is running for Treasurer, leaving the State Senate seat up for grabs. I’ll try to be brief.
On the Democratic side, activist Matthew Marquez ($13.3K COH, Clean) and tax auditor Douglas Ervin ($15.7K COH, Clean) face off for the nomination. Marquez – anecdotally – is running behind Ervin in terms of in-district enthusiasm and endorsements, but the race is still close, and he does a small but dedicated progressive bloc of volunteers. Ervin still seems like he’ll get the nomination, but there’s a good chance at Marquez getting it instead.
On the GOP side, State Rep. Paul Boyer ($30.8K) and ASU Professor Charles Loftus ($300 COH) face off for the nomination. Boyer’s past history in the district and financial advantage make this pretty much a one-sided race.
The House is a bit less packed, but still a wild ride – at least on the Dem. side. The GOP only has two candidates running – conservative activist (And wife of AZ superior Court judge Clint Bolick) Shawnna Bolick ($93K COH – she has sizable connections), and incumbent Rep. Anthony Kern ($36K COH).
The Dem. primary is a bit more packed. Lawyer Chris Loftus Gilfillan ($13K COH, Clean – and yes, middle name “Loftus”. No clue about relation), small business owner Patrick Church ($300 COH), non-profit manager Hazel Chandler ($2K COH, Clean) and special needs advocate Dan Anderson ($200 COH) are all running for two spots for the general. Currently I’d guess that Gilfillan and Chandler will make it through due to their strong groundgame and online media presence, but Church could sneak through in a fluke. Anderson, unfortunately, won’t be making it to the general.
In the general, any Dem. candidate that makes it through will be relying heavily on outside party funds to get them to parity with the massive warchests of Kern/BoyeBolick. With the district an under-the-radar target by Dems (it was won by the Maricopa County Recorder, Adrian Fontes, during his 2016 campaign), such cash will be deathly important for flipping both chambers of the legislature. I personally don’t see much hope in the district, but anecdotally real decisionmakers in the party apparatus see it as more than likely to flip.
Here's hoping it does so in November.
EDIT: Christ, forgot there was an independent running. Doug Quelland is a former Republican Senator in that district running to the right of Boyer. Hopefully he helps Ervin flip it.
hunter15991 Rating: Leans Ervin, Likely Boyer, Likely Gilfilan, Leans Chandler. Tossup Senate general, Leans GOP House (x2) general.
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